Introducing: I Don't Hold An Election, Mate.
š A new election column from Kara Schlegl
Gāday Fearmongers, Thrilled to announce a new column by one of the most talented people I know. Writer Kara Schlegl brings a uniquely clear-sighted, smart and often funny view to any topic. Itās our luck and fortune that Kara has agreed to write a column for A Rational Fearās Substack every fortnight on a Tuesday until the election: I Donāt Hold An Election Mate. This is possible thanks to people who chip into the A Rational Fear Patreon, if you want to read more like this ā chip-in for as little as the price of a cup of hot chocolate per month. Cheers Dan Ilic
Hereās How Scott Morrison Could Win This Election.
Where I try to explain preference voting without falling asleep on my keyboard.
Late on a balmy Sunday evening, as Australia was still recovering from our collective Barty Party hangover, we received word from Newspoll that the general vibes of the nation were shifting. In a surprise to only Prime Minister Scott Morrison himself (probably), his approval rating dropped 5 points, and his disapproval rating gained 6 points. Yes, the shift was so cataclysmic, it defied the laws of mathematics. And so too did The Australian when they sliced up their Newspoll pie charts, as if it were a real pie and they were getting Morrisonās piece.Ā



If youāre lefty scum like me, this mightāve been a perfect way to end a perfect weekend, a weekend that saw proud Ngaragu woman Ash Barty become the first homegrown tennis player to win the Australian Open in 44 years, and saw Queensland Senator Pauline Hanson get stung by a bunch of wasps. Truly, there are no words to express what last weekend meant to me, especially as a way to set a tone for the upcoming election.Ā
However, I hate to be a buzz-kill (pun intended), but I do remember feeling a similar smug optimism at the open of the 2019 federal election, and we all know how that ended. Back then, of course, the Newspoll numbers werenāt quite so definitive (and by ādefinitiveā I mean, hilariously brutal). But, with a not so insignificant boost from the Greens Party, the ALP was in a clear lead.Ā
I donāt remember much from before the pandemic, my brain has slowly turned to mush over the last two years, but I do remember the abject horror of watching the vote count on election night defy all predictions, and destroy my hopes and dreams. Something I think we all need to keep in mind is that polls arenāt votes, and that an election isnāt over until Antony Green sings.
But still, things arenāt looking great for the Coalition. And, even without polls, you might be wondering how this Government could possibly retain power after all the havoc theyāve wreaked on my nerves specifically in the past few years. Seriously, Iāve been writing about politics for almost a decade, and Iāve never been more stressed out.
So, hereās a stat that might blow your mind. In the 2019 election, almost 70% of winning candidates received less than 50% of the vote in their electorate. This means these candidates were entirely reliant on preference votes from other party and independent candidate ballots to win their seat. To put that into perspective, thatās two thirds of the House of Representatives decided by those who voted ā1ā for the least popular candidates. Yes, that guy you know who voted for Clive Palmerās UAP āas a jokeā likely helped seal our election fate.
ThisĀ Conversation explainerĀ uses an extreme example from 1972 in the federal division of McMillan, where ALP votes towered over an LNP candidate, only to watch themselves get crushed under a tidal wave of small party voters to lead to an out of nowhere Country Party victory. In 2019, far more total preference votes went to the ALP, largely due to the growing popularity of the Greens Party. Yes, unfortunately for all the Bill Shorten stans out there (I know there are millions of you), even preferences couldnāt save him. But both parties benefitted greatly from preferences, with 54 seats won by the ALP andĀ 46 seats won by the Coalition through preference voting.Ā
Iām not here to talk about how fair this is. Iām not an expert on the electoral system, nor am I good at math (in fact, Iām about as bad at math as The Australianās art department). What I do know is that there were plenty of reasons the ALP lost the federal election in 2019. The party themselves wrote an entire treatise about it, which reads like a Mean Girls burn book, with notable claims that Bill Shorten is a fugly slut. But there is a reason the Coalition won the election that often gets lost in the noise of people bullying Shorten; many Australians voted for the Coalition as their number 2.
Whether this was because people followed those stupid āHow To Voteā pamphlets that get thrust into our faces as we line up for a democracy sausage, or if itās because people genuinely felt that Morrison was second best, weāll likely never know. Hell, I once rocked up to an election booth so hungover, Iām pretty sure I picked the Shooters & Fishers as my number 2 choice because I like fish.Ā
Clearly, Iām not in a position to judge anyone, but if youāre a loose unit like me, read the following carefully; preferences count. Whomever you put last on that ballot can count just as much as who you put first. Thatās something nobody has ever properly explained to me, and as a consequence, Iāve made so many terrible choices in my voting life. If I were to wish for anything going into this election season (other than for Pauline Hanson to get stung by wasps again), it would be that you learn from my mistakes.Ā
K.S.
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Lovely. Is this something or am I just old & out of touch?
"Bill Shorten stans out there"